Centered From Reality

Alex is joined by history correspondent Cole Costello, a PhD student at the University of Montana studying labor history around the turn of the 20th century. The two dig into Donald Trump’s unusual ranking of U.S. presidents, using it as a jumping-off point to discuss presidential history, political leadership, expansionism, and what the rankings may reveal about Trump’s worldview. They also examine some of the list’s stranger omissions—including Republican icon Ronald Reagan—and try to make sense of why certain presidents made the cut while others disappeared entirely. Along the way, they debate figures including Ulysses S. Grant, Andrew Johnson, FDR, and Bill Clinton, while touching on the increasingly surreal state of contemporary American politics.

Alex breaks down signs of an unusually powerful El Niño taking shape in the Pacific and what it could mean for South America, from flooding and landslides in Peru and Chile to major disruptions in marine ecosystems. He also looks at the extreme ocean heat fueling concern among scientists and why this El Niño could hit differently in a world already dealing with warmer seas and stressed ecosystems. The episode also covers renewed tensions with Iran and the catastrophic flooding unfolding in Nepal.

The episode focuses on two stories with a heavy dose of irony and geopolitical anxiety. Alex reacts to far-right provocateur Milo Yiannopoulos being detained by ICE and facing deportation after overstaying his authorized time in the U.S., then turns to CIA Director John Ratcliffe’s surprise trip to Moscow to warn Russia against testing NATO—potentially through a limited attack on a Baltic state. The Ratcliffe visit feels especially ominous given that the last known CIA-director trip to Moscow came shortly before Russia invaded Ukraine.

In this episode, Alex centers on two escalating crises tied to Trump-era instability. First, there's growing speculation that Iran's new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, may be dead, brain-damaged, or in hiding—he hasn't been seen publicly in six months, and new leadership billboards notably exclude him, showcasing IRGC military commanders instead of clerics. This shift suggests Iran may be sliding from a theocracy toward a more repressive military dictatorship, with the morality police and public executions already back in force. Second, the US-Canada trade war has intensified sharply, with Trump threatening to rename Lake Ontario "Lake America" and impose steep tariffs, prompting PM Mark Carney to walk away from negotiations and retaliate with matching tariffs—despite the deep economic ties between Ontario and the US that mean the standoff will likely hurt both sides. Woven throughout are lighter personal tangents on streaming frustrations over soccer, a Ted Lasso opinion, a rumored KFC Oreo sandwich, and Below Deck.

Alex examines how the Russia-Ukraine war may be accelerating a troubling new era of autonomous warfare, including reports that Ukraine considered using AI-guided drone swarms to disrupt Moscow’s civilian airports. He draws a cautious comparison between Ukraine and Israel, asking what happens when a country increasingly doubts its allies will protect it and concludes that survival requires acting on its own. Alex argues that Western hesitation may be pushing Ukraine toward greater military self-reliance, while warning that the technologies developed out of wartime necessity could reshape warfare long after the conflict ends.

Alex examines speculation that Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth could be positioning himself for a 2028 presidential run before turning to a more immediate national security concern: America’s dwindling supply of Patriot missile interceptors. Using Ukraine and the war with Iran as warning signs, Alex explores how slow production and surging demand could leave the U.S. and its allies dangerously underprepared for a larger conflict with China. He also looks at emerging alternatives and whether Western defense industries can expand quickly enough to avoid “going Winchester.”

Alex opens the episode with reflections on a recent movie outing, politics, and memories of traveling through Greece and seeing once-thriving towns affected by economic decline. He then hosts María Tribe for a wide-ranging conversation centered on the World Cup, soccer culture, and controversies surrounding racism and player and fan behavior, particularly involving Argentina and Spain. They explore how racism manifests differently across countries, the roles of culture, upbringing, accountability, and education, while also touching on Argentina’s politics and economy. The episode wraps up with lighter conversation about television, including The Boys.

Alex takes a quick break from a dinner party to unpack what he sees as two of Trump’s latest foreign-policy headaches: scaling back military exercises with South Korea while cozying up to North Korea, and threatening Oman as the Iran conflict drags on. Between Trump’s “too late to cancel” excuse, threats to bomb a longtime U.S. partner, and a war looking increasingly like the “forever wars” he promised to end, Alex’s takeaway is pretty simple: the golden era is looking more than a little chaotic.

Alex is joined by María Tribe for a wide-ranging conversation about life in Spain, beginning with Maria’s firsthand experience of wildfires near Madrid and expanding into Spanish culture, immigration, politics, and the country’s complicated relationship with its past. They explore the growing appeal of figures like Andrew Tate, masculinity and the frustrations of young men, as well as the role religion, therapy, and personal accountability play in today’s culture. The conversation ultimately turns to Trump, political polarization, and the history and continuing appeal of fascism, including a deeper look at Franco and the Spanish Civil War.