Stagflation, Hunting RINOS, Patriot Front & Colombia’s Elections

In this episode, Alex discusses Colombia’s troubling elections, recession and stagflation worries, Eric Greiten’s new campaign ad glorifying political violence, and the growing threat of white nationalist groups like Patriot Front. 

• Colombia’s outgoing president, a moderate named Ivan Duque, has tried to do everything right and has saved the country from economic collapse during the pandemic, however, his popularity was around 20%. Instead, two populists (far left and far right) are the most popular in Colombia for the presidential election. Alex ponders why the populace is so unhappy with Duque even when most indicators show he did a good job 
• Alex worries that a recession could be inevitable in the coming year. Goldman Sachs has cut its economic forecast growth reports. Also, Bloomberg notes that “The Goldman team sees a 30% probability of entering a recession over the next year, up from 15% previously, and a 25% conditional probability of entering a recession in the second year if one is avoided in the first. That implies a 48% cumulative probability in the next two years versus 35% previously.” The Federal Reserve has also raised its interest rate by 75 basis points, Alex discusses how the goal of this is to cool off the economy by suppressing demand. Some worry that this may spark a recession and a spike in unemployment. These are symptoms of a malfunctioning economy or “stagflation.” 
• Eric Greitens, the former governor of Missouri who had to resign due to assault charges and was accused of abusing his wife and children, has a new ad. This ad has him hunting “RINOS” (Republicans in Name Only). RINOS are Republicans like Liz Cheney that have criticized the MAGA movement and have condemned violent extremism. Alex worries that Greitens is glorifying political violence. However, it looks like he may win his election. 
• Last week, 31 men were arrested for attempting to violently riot at a pride event in Idaho. They were members of the white nationalist group Patriot Front. Alex discusses that this group is growing in numbers and has had a national presence since its founding in 2017.