Centered From Reality

A Problematic New Constitution in Chile: A Message to Divided Democracies

Alex starts with an update on Ukraine. Then he discusses how a flawed constitution is being drafted in Chile and the Economist says that “Chile’s old constitution was hardly perfect. Indeed, it has been amended nearly 60 times. But compared with its proposed replacement, it is a paragon of clarity.” In 2019, following the violent protests in Chile over inequality, rising prices, and political corruption, the former center-right government agreed on creating a new constitutional assembly to draft a new constitution. The old constitution was created during the dictatorship of Pinochet and many blame it for the systemic issues in the country. Alex discusses how the new one is problematic because it is idealistic, vague, contradictory, and written by assembly members that are part of social movements and not political parties. There are many ideas with no definitions, new agencies without plans, and costly programs without any economic feasibility. Alex worries that this will cause legal infighting for years over vague terms and legal theories. Ultimately, this is a warning sign to other democracies. It is almost impossible to create a new constitution in a divided and polarized society. Alex uses an article from the University of Chicago to highlight why divisive times are not prime moments for creating a new constitution. 

Upheaval in Sri Lanka & Rogan Should Interview Trump - Saturday Special

In this weekend episode, Alex starts by asking “what happened to Michael Flynn?” by going over a new article that delves into this topic. Flynn seems to have gone from a skilled intelligence officer to a crazy MAGA start. 

Then Alex goes over the political and economic chaos occurring in Sri Lanka and why this could be a harbinger for things to come for other countries. Political and economic mismanagement have made the country a failed state and while the government blames the pandemic, the issue seems more complex. Sri Lanka owes China more than $5bn in debt and according to the BBC, took an additional $1bn loan from Beijing last year to help with its acute financial crisis. In 2022, it will need to repay over $7 billion in domestic and foreign debt. Now there is a massive crunch in fuel, food, and power; people are starving, dying, and angry. As inflation and supply issues have intensified because of the war in Ukraine, Alex worries this scenario could happen in other countries. 

Finally, Alex gives his case for why Donald Trump should appear on the Joe Rogan Experience. Recently, Rogan was asked if he would reconsider having Trump on the JRE and Rogan said that “I’ve said no every time, I don’t want to help him, I’m not interested in helping him.” Alex disagrees with this statement and thinks that the opposite could be true. 

Shinzo Abe is Dead & How a Unified Minority Beats a Fragmented Majority

In this episode, Alex discusses the tragic assassination of Shinzo Abe, Japan’s longest-serving Prime Minister. He also goes into the legacy of Abe and why he was controversial but important for unifying an alliance of Western and Asian partners. Abe was early to recognize growing threats in the region and helped unify allies such as the United States. The world was likely safer due to Abe’s divergence from other Japanese leaders. Alex then discusses that Boris Johnson has officially resigned. The fact that Boris Johnson actually resigned, and his own party turned against him, shows me how much trouble the U.S. is in. The inverse of that is happening in the United States. Finally, Alex looks at how the left is the majority in the United States, but lets perfection be the enemy of the good. He thinks this is a problem when you have a unified minority. He worries that this division on the left may enable the illiberalism that is growing on the left. he uses an analogy from the Stranger Things finale to bring this home. 

Bye Bye Boris, 4th of July Chaos & Adam Kinzinger Death Threats

In this episode, Alex discusses the tragedy in Highland Park on the 4th of July and why as Tom Nichols says, “the effect of these mass shootings is the same as terrorism: They rob us of a general sense of safety and turn us into a nation of hostages.”Then he discusses some new revelations from the investigation into the Trump team in Georgia, Lindsey Graham, and former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani have been called to testify. Then Alex provides a compilation of disturbing threats to Adam Kinzinger, that his team has put together. The threats help explain why Kinzinger could be resigning in November. Finally, Alex discusses how the clock may be running out on Boris Johnson’s time as PM of the United Kingdom. He has been hit by numerous scandals of his own creating and the master of chaos has caused too much of it. 

SCOTUS Says ”Hold My Beer”, Trump Throws Burgers & Dystopian Abortion Tracking

In this episode, Alex starts by talking about the pros and cons of Finland and Sweden joining NATO. Then he discusses the troubling testimony from Trump’s former aide, Cassidy Hutchinson. She not only described Trump’s knowledge of the mob being armed but also discussed how he was fine with it and wanted to join them at the capitol. Apparently, Trump also acted like a maniac and threw burgers, staining the walls of the White House with ketchup. Later, Alex discusses the West Virginia v. EPA case and how the SCOTUS will make it harder to create a robust clean energy economy. It will also make it harder to uniformly regulate carbon emissions across the United States. This decision will make things more expensive and less effective. Finally, Alex discusses how companies like Meta, Alphabet, Reddit, and Tik Tok could provide user data to law enforcement officials in states that have outlawed abortion. If a woman goes over state lines to get an abortion, these apps could provide that information to law enforcement. Catherine Crump, a law professor and director of the Samuelson Law, Technology and Public Policy Clinic at UC-Berkeley’s law school, says that “digital evidence has just revolutionized how criminal investigations are conducted in this country. We live our lives online, we leave digital breadcrumbs of our prior activities, and of course, those are going to be caught up in abortion investigations.”

America Is Going Backwards

In this episode, Alex reflects on the Supreme Court Decision that overturned Roe v Wade, an almost fifty-year precedent. Alex discusses how this is going to cause chaos and a potential constitutional crisis. In a day, a right that women had for multiple generations has now been stripped away. Alex worries that the pro-life movement has no plan on how to help women during this time and this will just accelerate America’s breakdown into two very separate countries. He also discusses the concurring opinions of Clarence Thomas and Brett Kavanaugh and what they may mean for other privacy decisions. 

Concealed to Carry Anywhere & Intimidation is the End Goal

In this episode, Alex goes over new revelations from the January 6th hearings, how the MAGA base is becoming more involved in deplorable acts of intimidating families, how the U.S. needs to find its sense of humor, and why the SCOTUS made a bad choice on its new concealed carry decision in New York. 

• Rusty Bowers, the Arizona Republican Speaker of the State House, testified that he was intimidated and asked to do unconstitutional acts during the 2020 election. He helped certified Joe Biden in Arizona while being a 2020 Trump supporter. While he stood up to the Big Lie and testified to the committee about the dangerous acts of the Trump administration, he has also said that he would vote for Trump over Biden in 2024. Alex ponders this dilemma and why it persists. Alex also discusses how the Trump base is becoming more violent in its rhetoric toward detractors. 
• Alex discusses how a sense of humor is necessary for a healthy society and that people need to be able to get offended. He discusses how the term “harmful” has been wrongfully misused. He uses examples from the recent Washington Post controversies, Taylor Lorenz’s reaction to a joke from Matthew Yglesias, and Dave Chappelle’s constant criticism. He notes that the nation has lost its sense of humor and that is not good for its cohesion. 
• The Supreme Court of the United States is going to make some controversial decisions over the next week and it has already made one. While the country is waiting on the decision regarding the Mississippi court case that could overturn Roe v Wade, the SCOTUS has already made a radical one regarding concealed carry permits for firearms. SCOTUS overturned a law in New York and now, it will be easier for Americans to concealed carry in a myriad of public spaces in New York. This decision is likely to overturn state regulations regarding concealed carry laws. Alex thinks this is the worst possible decision in a time when Americans are on edge and uncertainty is looming. The Atlantic poses some questions that this new decision has created “Are people carrying guns at schools and shopping malls and public parks? What about at churches and synagogues and mosques? What is it like to pray in places where fellow supplicants are armed?”

Stagflation, Hunting RINOS, Patriot Front & Colombia’s Elections

In this episode, Alex discusses Colombia’s troubling elections, recession and stagflation worries, Eric Greiten’s new campaign ad glorifying political violence, and the growing threat of white nationalist groups like Patriot Front. 

• Colombia’s outgoing president, a moderate named Ivan Duque, has tried to do everything right and has saved the country from economic collapse during the pandemic, however, his popularity was around 20%. Instead, two populists (far left and far right) are the most popular in Colombia for the presidential election. Alex ponders why the populace is so unhappy with Duque even when most indicators show he did a good job 
• Alex worries that a recession could be inevitable in the coming year. Goldman Sachs has cut its economic forecast growth reports. Also, Bloomberg notes that “The Goldman team sees a 30% probability of entering a recession over the next year, up from 15% previously, and a 25% conditional probability of entering a recession in the second year if one is avoided in the first. That implies a 48% cumulative probability in the next two years versus 35% previously.” The Federal Reserve has also raised its interest rate by 75 basis points, Alex discusses how the goal of this is to cool off the economy by suppressing demand. Some worry that this may spark a recession and a spike in unemployment. These are symptoms of a malfunctioning economy or “stagflation.” 
• Eric Greitens, the former governor of Missouri who had to resign due to assault charges and was accused of abusing his wife and children, has a new ad. This ad has him hunting “RINOS” (Republicans in Name Only). RINOS are Republicans like Liz Cheney that have criticized the MAGA movement and have condemned violent extremism. Alex worries that Greitens is glorifying political violence. However, it looks like he may win his election. 
• Last week, 31 men were arrested for attempting to violently riot at a pride event in Idaho. They were members of the white nationalist group Patriot Front. Alex discusses that this group is growing in numbers and has had a national presence since its founding in 2017. 

Ukraine’s Glass is Looking Half Empty & Mike Pence Could Have Died!

In this episode, Alex starts with his thoughts on Juneteenth. Then he goes over some highlights from the January 6th hearings. He feels that the testimonies from people like William Barr, Ivanka Trump, and Bill Stepien were necessary but too late. These people were cowards who waited too long and still are prospering off of the Trump grift. Alex also discusses how new revelations show that the mob came within 40 feet of Mike Pence and had a plan to kill him. 

In the main part of the episode, Alex gives an update on the war in Ukraine. Russia’s war of attrition seems to be working as Ukrainian forces are being outgunned and are losing morale. Also, NATO’s chief, Secretary-General, Jens Stoltenberg, has warned that the West should prepare for a war that will last years. Alex worries that the fragmented west, along with a collapsing global economy, could lead to a populist/isolationist backlash in places like the US, France, and Germany. He ends by discussing how India, a close ally of Russia, and an enemy of China, should be utilized in helping foster negotiations. The United States should also work to get India off of its dependence on Russian weapons. 

Did COVID Kill Mountain Towns? (Classic Episode)

Alex is off for the week while on vacation. This is an episode from April 2021 that goes over the impacts of the COVID pandemic and changing work dynamics in mountain towns. 

 

A headline out of the San Francisco Gate Newspaper reads “'Another family losing their home' as SF transplants are displacing Tahoe locals.” This is a trend that is growing in mountain towns across the United States in which remote work has allowed white-collar workers from cities to relocate to rural areas. Now, towns from California to Colorado are seeing surges in transplants that are causing a housing shortage that may kick out locals that work in the tourism industry that are needed to run these local economies. In this episode, Alex discusses how this is just another aspect of the inequalities that COVID-19 has brought to the surface. He also proposes a few solutions such as affordable housing.